I am fortunate to receive these updates, and wanted to pass them on as they include many market trends.
MARKET TRENDS: PORK
The pork cutout peaked at a record $1.10/lb in the second week of August, following a similar trend as in Aug 2008 and 2010 and as such has now declined to $0.97/lb for the final week of August and looks likely to head lower over the next few months. Production is seasonally increasing but continued strong export demand is expected to keep prices above last year’s levels through the end of the year. A drop in belly values (primal down 28 percent from peak to now 1.14/lb) initially sent the cutout lower while values for butts, picnics and trimmings continued higher but now prices for all cuts have moderated from their recent peaks. Prices for butts and picnics remain well-above last year but the primal values of $0.99/lb and $0.82/lb are each down 6 percent from the previous week (week ended Aug 26). 72% lean trimmings are still high at just under $1/lb but down from the recent peak of $1.18. China’s buying of U.S. pork carcasses has been a driver in high values for trimmings (and other cuts), as the same trend was evident in 2008. The loin primal at $1.17/lb is down 10 percent from the recent peak while the ham primal at $0.83/lb is down 7 percent (end of Aug compared to second week of Aug). Latest lean hog futures (Sept 2) are about $0.07/lb lower than in our July report: Oct $0.85/lb, Dec $0.83/lb and Feb $0.87/lb. Corn futures are $0.80 to $1.30/bushel higher! With Sept at $7.50/bu, Dec $7.60/bu and March $7.72/bu. High corn prices are expected to ration feed use (possibly result in smaller pork production next year) but the futures market is focused on heavier seasonal pork supplies and weak domestic demand at the moment. Many analysts expect a rebound in hog futures.
MARKET TRENDS: BEEF
The USDA Choice beef cutout moved higher late in Aug, to $1.87/lb but not quite to the peak of $1.91/lb achieved in April. Prices moderated to average $1.84/lb at the end of Aug with likely more downside potential in the coming weeks, but probably remaining well above 2010 prices. The cutout is 13 percent above last year with strong values for round and chuck cuts but also briskets, top sirloin butts and trimmings. Ribeye values have mostly trended with last year’s values ($5.55/lb for boneless heavy) while strip loin prices are weak and closer to the 2008 trend ($4.75/lb for boneless 0x1). Round knuckle values at $2.26/lb are more than 30 cents higher than last year but down about 8 cents from the recent peak. Shoulder clods at $1.97/lb are also 30 cents over last year but down about 20 cents from the recent peak. Chuck rolls at $2.32/lb are about 40 cents more than last year but 6 cents off the recent peak. 50% trimmings at $0.95/lb are down about 10 cents from the recent peak but still 25 cents more than last year. Brisket values have remained strong at $1.90/lb and same for loin top butts at $3.34/lb, 30 and 50 cents more than last year, likely reflecting U.S. consumers trading down to more affordable cuts for their grills. Cattle on feed on Aug 1 were up 7 percent from last year with large placements due to the severe drought in Texas—pushing cattle into feedlots. This will mean larger production in the first and into the second quarter of 2012 but then further contraction in the remainder of the year (and years to come as cows are being culled too). Latest live cattle futures were 5 to 10 cents less than in our July report: Oct $1.15/lb, Dec $1.16/lb, Feb $1.20/lb and April $1.24/lb. Weekly Choice Beef Cutout Values US$/pound$1.30$1.40$1.50$1.60$1.70$1.80$1.90$2.001/42/43/44/45/46/47/48/49/410/411/412/420072008200920102011Weekly Pork Cutout Values US$/pound$0.50$0.60$0.70$0.80$0.90$1.00$1.10$1.201/42/43/44/45/46/47/48/49/410/411/412/420072008200920102011
Naturally occurring preservative kills bacteria, researchers say
University of Minnesota researchers have discovered and patented a peptide, a lantibiotic produced by harmless bacteria, which could be added to meats and other products to kill bacterial like salmonella, E.coli and listeria. Lantibiotics are easy to digest, nontoxic, they don’t induce allergic reactions, and it’s difficult for bacteria to develop resistance to them. The university’s office is looking for a licensee for the technology.
ELIZABETH WUNDERLICH —U.S.MEAT EXPORT FEDERATION —TEL: 830.997.6319—FAX: 830.997.6093—E-MAIL:wunderlc@hctc.net – Web site: www.usmef.org
Pork buyers more loyal than beef buyers in meat case: study
As meat prices rise, consumers are switching from beef to chicken, but pork consumers appear more protein loyal. As retail meat prices rose 7.2% in the latest 52 weeks ending June 25th, not surprisingly meat volume sales declined 2.8%. The research also found that:
Nearly 60% of respondents plan their fresh meat purchases. However, a large majority of those would be willing to switch their planned purchase in store for another item that is on sale or priced lower.
Price was among the most important influencers for consumers, ranking above protein type and intended use.
Even without an actual price change, the claim that an item is on sale has a positive impact on purchasing decisions.
The more heavily promoted, higher-priced cuts are most sensitive to switching behavior.
All fresh beef cuts were more elastic than other proteins, meaning consumers are sensitive to price changes; conversely, most pork cuts were inelastic, indicating that pork shoppers are loyal even with price increases.
New item introductions update
Cici’s Pizza announced it is rolling out its new Cheeseburger Pizza which features ground beef, cheese, fresh chopped pickles, mustard and ketchup on a crust as part of its American Classics series. Others to follow include BBQ, Buffalo Chicken, and their signature Macaroni and Cheese pizzas.
Superior Farms launches 3 new value-added lamb products to their Mediterranean Grill line: Fully cooked gyro meat slices, ready-to-cook Italian-style lamb and pork sausages, and lamb and beef tips in a Mediterranean-style marinade.
Nathan’s Famous Angus Beef Franks, launched in early June, come in a 14 oz., seven-link package with a black label.
Ball Park added a new product: the Deli-Style Beef Frank, a high-quality frank made with 100% beef.
Best in show: Classic and new breeds of the hot dog
Some analysts credit Chef Daniel Boulud with kicking off the current hotdog revival with sausages like the all-beef DBGB Dog on his DBGB Kitchen menu. It’s also possible that hot dogs are benefiting from strong tailwinds provided by the runaway success of better-burger specialists. Either way, the hot dog is moving from the ballpark and into the limelight. Here are some examples:
Kurobuta Pork Dog at Japa Dog street cart in Vancouver.
Hot Doug’s and Biker Jim in Denver offer rattlesnake, elk or duck options.
Franks ‘n’ Dawgs in Chicago promises five-star dining with toppings like duck confit, black-pepper oyster sauce, buttermilk vinaigrette, pickled fennel & macerated grapes; their Brunch Dog is finished with fried egg and maple mayo.
Let’s Be Frank, San Fran, features a Devil Sauce of organic California-grown peppers, ginger, garlic & toasted spices.
Wienerschnitzel puts a chili dog on a pretzel bun for a comfort food combo.
Sonic Drive-in introduced regional favorites: NY (sauerkraut), Chicago (pickle, peppers and celery salt); Chili Cheese Coney; All-American (ketchup, mustard, relish, chopped onions); and Baja Dog (jalapeño & pepper jack cheese).
Steak’n Shake’s Signature Steak Franks address regional preferences with toppings of guacamole and coleslaw.
Jody Maroni’s in California boasts an all-beef in natural casing “that snaps,” a highly prized attribute for frank-ophiles.
The Danger Dog (bacon-wrapped) was introduced from Tijuana, Mexico to vending carts in the USA.
Mini-dogs on appetizer platters are appearing with sliders.
Dirty Frank’s in Ohio has a Seoul Dog topped with Korean kimchi and a Sriracha drizzle.
Pork is hitting the restaurant plate
The percentage of restaurant dishes containing a pork product? 1990: 5% 2011: 99.9%
Whether it is pork belly, bacon or the brined chop, pork is everywhere. At the South’s hottest restaurant, the bacon is inside the burger, not on top of it. At Charleston’s Husk Restaurant, Chef Brock went whole hog, grinding hickory-smoked bacon into the beef because he hated fighting with a strip of bacon that’s sliding off the bun.
USMEF Caribbean Happenings: September/October
August 6 – 15: Seminars at Amazon Flavors Chef Competition in Suriname
August 22 – 24: Retail training for CFL/Super J’s in St. Vincent.
August 25 – 30: Retail and HRI seminars in Trinidad (Hilton)
October 20: Hotel Food Supply Show in Barbados
October 27: Bahamas Food Services Show in Nassau
- Maralyn D Hill
